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Report on expected developments – development of operating environment

Following the slump in the global economy as a result of the financial crisis in 2009, its recovery in 2010 was much stronger than expected, particularly in Germany. Extensive measures on the part of central banks and governments to stabilise banks and companies during 2008 and 2009 also helped to restore confidence in the financial markets. Nevertheless, the financial markets continued to experience phases of substantial volatility and uncertainty in the year under review. Against this backdrop, the Group’s business activities improved slightly in 2010 compared with 2009.

Deutsche Börse Group expects the economic environment to improve further in the forecast period. In their initial forecasts for 2011, leading economic research institutes predict economic growth of between 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent in the euro zone and between 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in Germany. The difference between the euro zone and Germany is a result of the slower growth or even renewed contraction anticipated in some southern European countries. If the forecasts prove correct, German GDP in mid-2011 would return to the level seen before the recession in 2009. According to current estimates, GDP in the euro zone and Germany in 2012 will develop on a similar scale to 2011.

Expectations for the United Kingdom and the US are somewhat higher than for the euro zone. The economy in the United Kingdom is forecast to grow by 2.0 percent in 2011 and by 2.3 percent in the following year. In the US it is predicted to increase by 2.2 percent to 3.0 percent in 2011 and by 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent in the year after. The highest growth by far is expected in Asian countries, especially China and India, where growth of 8 percent to 10 percent is forecast in anticipation of high domestic demand. Given the extremely varied estimates for the different economic regions, global economic growth is projected to be between 3.3 percent and 4.4 percent in 2011. For 2012, the economic institutes predict that the upswing will continue, and even accelerate slightly, to between 3.6 percent and 4.6 percent.

Governments and central banks are currently working on strengthening regulation of the financial markets to further stabilise the financial sector and prevent future crises of this degree of severity. The measures envisioned, and in some cases already initiated, range from the revising of the legal framework for banking business and capital requirements to improving financial market supervision (for more information, please see section “Regulatory environment” of this Group management report).

Deutsche Börse Group does not plan in the forecast period to make any material changes to its integrated business model, which focuses on trading, clearing, settlement and custody of securities and derivatives. Based on this successful business model, which covers the entire process chain for financial market transactions and the most prominent asset classes, Deutsche Börse will continue to observe the trends on the financial markets worldwide and to leverage them to enhance its products and services. The Company’s key strategic goal is to provide all customers with outstanding services.

With its scalable electronic platforms, Deutsche Börse believes it remains in an excellent position to compete with other providers of trading and settlement services.

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