Based on the assumptions outlined above regarding the development of the financial markets and on its successful business model, Deutsche Börse is forecasting further growth in sales revenue for both 2008 and 2009. ISE, which in 2008 will be consolidated for its first full year, structural changes in the financial markets, and new products and services will all contribute to this growth. In connection with the restructuring and efficiency program announced in September 2007, which aims to generate savings of €50 million in 2008, €75 million in 2009 and €100 million a year as of 2010, the Company expects EBITA to grow faster than sales revenue. For 2008, the Company is therefore forecasting record EBITA of over €1,345.9 million. In addition, the plan announced in January 2008 to relocate some of the employees currently stationed in Frankfurt to neighbouring Eschborn will significantly reduce the tax rate and thus improve after-tax earnings. Following the move, the acquisition of ISE and the effects of the business tax reform in Germany, Deutsche Börse expects a tax rate of less than 30 percent for 2008. It anticipates a rate of 27 percent for 2009 and a rate of 25 to 27 percent for 2010. Should the financial markets not develop as expected, the Company is confident that it can compensate wholly or partially for variances, based on its diversified business model.  Xetra segment Sales revenue in the Xetra cash market segment will continue to depend on equity market trends, equity market volatility and structural changes relating to trading activity. On average, equity market volatility increased slightly in 2007 due to temporary spikes. At the beginning of 2008, volatility was at a very high level over a longer period. Continued high volatility may provide the Xetra segment with additional momentum for growth in the forecast period, as trading is particularly brisk during such market phases. Structural changes in the equity market stem primarily from the increasing use of fully computerized trading strategies, known as algorithmic trading. For the forecast period, the Company anticipates an increase in algorithmic trading as a proportion of Xetra’s trading volume. An extended range of products and services will provide further momentum for growth in the cash market. For example, Xetra Release 9.0 will migrate trading in warrants and certificates to the Xetra platform. These products will then be available to trading participants throughout Europe. As part of the release, Xetra’s processing and data distribution times will also be further shortened so as to offer customers a best-in-class trading system.  Eurex segment In contrast to the cash market, the general trend on the financial markets will play a subordinated role in the Eurex derivatives market segment. Here, the Company still expects structural growth factors to be more significant. These factors were explained in more detail in the “Results of operations” section. In addition to the existing portfolio of products and services, ISE will be a further growth driver. Through this acquisition completed on 19 December 2007, Eurex is significantly expanding its liquidity network in the US and trading in US dollar products. Eurex and ISE participants gain access to a larger number of highly liquid products in various asset classes and currencies. The merger also provides the potential for growth through the cross-selling of existing products and the joint development of innovative new products. In their first joint initiative, the partners are developing a new electronic options trading system for ISE, which is scheduled to start operations at the beginning of 2011. In the context of the ISE acquisition, intangible assets in the amount of €1,345.1 million including goodwill in the amount of €882.0 million were included in the consolidated balance sheet. In case of a clearly negative business development at ISE – and an impairment test held in that connection – the need could arise to fully or partially write-off the intangible assets or goodwill. Due to the positive competitive position and growth perspectives of ISE, the Company estimates that this risk is extremely marginal in the forecast period.  Clearstream segment The Clearstream segment will continue to generate the majority of its sales revenue through the settlement and custody of international bonds. Deutsche Börse predicts that the volume of fixed-income securities issued internationally will continue to grow faster than that of securities issued nationally. However, a substantial hike in longterm interest rates could impact Clearstream’s business overall, as issuing activity would be expected to abate. In terms of customer structure, the Company expects consolidation in the financial sector to continue and customers in Clearstream’s domestic and international business to merge. These larger customers would receive larger rebates, which could lead to a decline in average fees. As Deutsche Börse faces especially intense competition in the areas of settlement and custody of international bonds, loss of market share and a consequent reduction in Clearstream’s sales revenue could occur. For the forecast period, however, the Company does not expect any loss of market share. It also does not expect TARGET2 Securities, the European Central Bank’s planned securities settlement platform, to impact negatively on its results of operations. This assessment is based firstly on the fact that this project has yet to be approved by the European Union finance ministers, and secondly on the preliminary project timetable, in which a launch is only scheduled for 2013. As part of the Clearstream segment’s upgraded product and service offering, the Company’s plan for the forecast period is to expand the new settlement service for investment funds (Central Facility for Funds, CFF) and offer it beyond Luxembourg and Belgium, the two markets already connected. CFF enables synchronous exchange of cash and securities between fund distributors and transfer agents, thus offering the standards of settlement that have long prevailed in relation to other investment instruments. Deutsche Börse expects net interest income from banking business to remain below the 2007 level during the forecast period. This estimate is based on the assumption that, in spite of increasing business activity, cash deposits from customers will decline due to improved liquidity management. A reduction in short-term interest rates is foreseeable.  Market Data & Analytics segment Based on the forecasted financial market developments, the Company anticipates that it will be possible to further increase demand for financial market data of the Market Data & Analytics segment. Additional growth is expected to come from the continuous expansion of the product range in all areas of the segment.  Development of pricing models For the forecast period, Deutsche Börse anticipates sustained price pressure in some of its business areas, such as in Xetra’s electronic trading activities. The Company’s objective is to mitigate this price pressure by continually improving its products and services and offering selective incentives in price-elastic business. For example, during the period under review, Xetra and Eurex significantly increased their system capacity while keeping costs stable and offered price incentives for own-account trading in the derivatives market. In spite of this, it is to be expected that average sales revenue per chargeable unit will decline slightly over the long term in some areas.  Regulatory framework Regulatory changes of relevance to Deutsche Börse stem from the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) on the one hand and the European Code of Conduct for clearing and settlement of shares on the cash market on the other. MiFID is designed to foster transparent and fair competitive conditions for all participants and improve investor protection. To achieve this, MiFID defined strict pre-trading and post-trading transparency rules for on-exchange and OTC equity trading, which have been in force since 1 November 2007. In addition, investment service companies are now obliged to offer their customers best execution of orders, i.e. execution at the best possible price. Deutsche Börse sees the new directive as an opportunity to expand its service range and tap new areas of business: the Company has introduced a host of new services in the cash market and market data areas, which are expected to generate additional sales revenue in the forecast period. Deutsche Börse considers itself to be excellently positioned with its transparent and deep liquidity pool of securities that are tradable on its platforms – even against the backdrop of the new best execution obligations. The Company does not anticipate the potential market entry of banks or other exchange organizations to significantly impact its results of operations in its cash market business during the forecast period. The Code of Conduct is a market initiative aimed at creating a standard and cost-effective European framework for cross-border equity trading, clearing and settlement. Deutsche Börse contributed to the development of the Code, which was introduced in its entirety in 2007. It covers the following areas: price transparency, access and interoperability, as well as the organization of services and separate accounting. Deutsche Börse already met many of the requirements in the Code of Conduct before it was introduced and therefore does not now expect it to materially affect the Company’s business model, revenue or cost structure.  Cost management In September 2007, the Company announced an extensive restructuring and efficiency program that aims to generate savings of €100 million per year. In 2008, costs are already expected to be €50 million lower than in financial year 2007. Including the costs of ISE, the Company expects total costs of around €1,280 million in 2008. The full effects of the program will accrue from 2010 onwards. However, it will not limit planned investments in future growth in any way. Deutsche Börse intends to continue expanding through new products and markets. In combination with structural growth trends in all business areas, this offers shareholders the prospect of continued earnings growth.  |