Macroeconomic environment

Global economic growth slowed again over the course of 2023, as a result of much more restrictive monetary policies by central banks. The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine in the Middle East in the second half-year also caused uncertainty among market participants. We expect the economic situation to remain tense in 2024 due to high interest rates. Interest rate cuts by central banks following further falls in inflation could have a positive impact on the economic environment, on the one hand. On the other, a sharper decline in economic growth than expected or a recession could lead to uncertainty among market participants.

For the year 2024 we are expect revenue to increase again to more than €5.6 billion. In addition to organic growth on the basis of our secular growth opportunities, the consolidation of SimCorp will make a significant contribution. We are also currently anticipating slight secular headwinds if central banks should reduce their base rates. If market volatility goes up or interest rates stay at least at their current level, this would have a positive effect. In terms of operating costs we are planning an increase for investment in our organic growth opportunities, and the additional contribution from SimCorp. On this basis we anticipate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of more than €3.2 billion in 2024.

Forecast for results of operations 2024

Initiatives to promote the transparency and security of the markets will continue to be a key focus during the forecast period, ensuring that we add value for society. As far as the forecast development of non-financial performance indicators for 2024 is concerned, system availability was brought back into line with the high targets by means of additional back-up measures, which became part of everyday operations. We therefore expect that the system availability of customer facing IT will remain high in the forecast period.

Being an attractive employer is important for our sustained success. We want to attract top talents and retain them for the long term. The measures described in the chapter “Employees” have put us in a good position and we are confident that we can maintain or improve on our employee satisfaction of more than 71.5 per cent.

Deutsche Börse AG's Executive Board has defined target quotas for women on the two management levels beneath the Executive Board, in accordance with section 76 (4) of the AktG, in each case referring to Deutsche Börse AG. By 31 December 2024, the proportion of women holding positions in the first and second management levels beneath the Executive Board is planned to reach 15 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively. Moreover, on a global group level the Executive Board has adopted a voluntary commitment to increase the share of women holding upper management positions to 24 per cent by the end of 2024, and of women holding lower management positions to 33 per cent during the same period. We have extended the scope of our voluntary commitment over and above the legal requirements.

The assessment of independent ESG rating agencies is an important benchmark for our ESG efforts. We continuously analyse our performance and take action accordingly. Over the forecast period we expect that we will be able to maintain our good position above the 90th percentile of the ESG ratings.

Targets for non-financial KPI for 2024

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We expect that cash flow from operating activities, which is our primary source of financing, will remain significantly positive in future. We expect that three significant factors will influence changes in liquidity in the forecast period: Firstly, we plan to invest around €350 million in intangible assets and property, plant and equipment at Group level. These investments will serve primarily to develop new products and services in our growth areas and to enhance existing ones. We also launched a share buyback programme with a volume of €300 million in January 2024. In May 2024 we will propose a dividend of €3.80 per share to the Annual General Meeting. This would represent a cash outflow of about €703.4 million. Apart from the above, we did not expect any other material factors to impact the Group’s liquidity at the time the combined management report was prepared. As in previous years, we assume that we will have a sound liquidity base in the forecast period due to positive cash flow from operating activities, adequate credit lines (for details see “note 24 to the consolidated financial statements”), and our flexible management and planning systems.

Based on the successful implementation of our previous strategy and in expectation of further growth, we have refined our capital management. In future we will aim to distribute dividends equivalent to 30-40 per cent of the net profit for the period attributable to the shareholders of Deutsche Börse AG. The dividend per share is planned to increase going forward. In addition, available liquidity can be invested in the Group’s further inorganic development, as in the past. In the event of any surplus liquidity, the company intends to supplement the dividend with share buybacks.

To maintain its strong credit ratings at Group level, we aim for a ratio of net debt to EBITDA of no more than 2.25, and a ratio of free funds from operations to net debt of at least 40 per cent. Financing the takeover of SimCorp temporarily caused the ratio of free funds from operations to net debt to not fulfill the target at year-end 2023. We expect to be within the limit for this indicator again in 2024 thanks to positive cash flow from operating activities.