Macroeconomic environment

High interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic took their toll over the course of 2024 and the economy slowed significantly. Finally, lower inflation prompted the central banks to cut interest rates in order to slow the economic downturn. Even if the global economy proved to be resilient under these circumstances, new and ongoing geopolitical tensions and military conflicts pose a risk for another upturn.  

We expect inflation to continue falling in the euro area and the economy to recover in 2025. The assumption is that these developments will be accompanied by further interest rate cuts. The effects of the more protectionist economic policies that have been announced by the new US administration are unclear at present. Drastic increases in tariffs, a spiralling conflict with China or another increase in inflation could also have a painful impact on the European economy and cause uncertainty among market participants. 

Going forward, we will manage our business more on the basis of net revenues excluding treasury result (net interest income and margin fees), as this indicator excludes the cyclical impact of interest rates. In line with our strategy and on the basis of organic growth opportunities, we expect our net revenue without the treasury result to increase to around €5.2 billion. In the treasury result, which consists of net interest income plus margin fees, we expect to see cyclical headwinds due to lower interest rates. We therefore currently anticipate a treasury result of more than €0.8 billion for the forecast period. By investing in our organic growth opportunities, we plan to increase operating expenses by around 3 percent in 2025. On this basis, we expect an increase in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), without the treasury result, to around EUR 2.7 billion.

Forecast for results of operations 2025

We expect that cash flow from operating activities, which is our primary source of financing, will remain significantly positive in future. We expect that three significant factors will influence changes in liquidity in the forecast period: Firstly, we plan to invest around €350 to €400 million in intangible assets and property, plant and equipment at Group level. These investments will serve primarily to develop new products and services in our growth areas and to enhance existing ones. We also launched a share buyback program with a volume of €500 million in February 2025. In May 2025 we will propose a dividend of €4.00 per share to the Annual General Meeting. This would represent a cash outflow of about €735.1 million. In addition, the potential exit of the minority shareholder of our subsidiary ISS STOXX could have an impact on our liquidity. If Deutsche Börse were to acquire the shares, this would result in a cash outflow. If ISS STOXX were to go public, Deutsche Börse would continue to hold a majority interest and consolidate ISS STOXX, and a cash inflow for Deutsche Börse AG would be expected. Apart from the above, we did not expect any other material factors to impact the Group’s liquidity at the time the combined management report was prepared. As in previous years, we assume that we will have a sound liquidity base in the forecast period due to positive cash flow from operating activities, adequate credit lines (for details see Note 25 to the consolidated financial statements), and our flexible management and planning systems.

As part of our dividend strategy we will aim to distribute dividends equivalent to 30-40 per cent of the net profit for the period attributable to the shareholders of Deutsche Börse AG. The dividend per share is planned to increase going forward. In addition, available liquidity can be invested in the Group’s further inorganic development, as in the past. In the event of any surplus liquidity, the company intends to supplement the dividend with share buybacks.

To maintain its strong credit ratings at Group level, we aim for a ratio of net debt to EBITDA of no more than 2.25, and a ratio of free funds from operations to net debt of at least 40 per cent. Due to the positive cash flow from operating activities, we expect to fulfill this requirement again in 2025.

We believe that the company remains very well positioned in the international competition thanks to its broadly diversified offering along the securities trading value chain and its innovative strength, and we expect a positive long-term trend in its results of operations. Our business strategy and the resulting measures should further accelerate this growth. The Group's aim is to become more agile and effective, to sharpen its client focus and, over the long term, to become the global market infrastructure provider of choice, with a top ranking in all its business areas.

Based on the conditions for organic growth, the Executive Board is planning for net revenue without treasury result to increase to around €5.2 billion and for EBITDA without treasury result to increase to around €2.7 billion during the forecast period. In addition, the Executive Board expects a treasury result of more than €0.8 billion.

Overall, on this basis, the Executive Board expects a significantly positive cash flow from operating activities and thus, as in previous years, a solid liquidity position. The Executive Board's overall statement applies at the time of publication of this combined management report.