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Report on expected developments – future development of results of operations

Given its diversified business model and multiple sources of revenue and despite the extraordinary macroeconomic environment, Deutsche Börse Group believes it is very well positioned to further improve its results of operations in the medium and long term. This expectation is based on, among other things, the structural growth opportunities that the Group intends to exploit (for details, see the Opportunities report), as well as on additional contributions from acquisitions.

As in previous years, Deutsche Börse Group expects net revenue from secular growth opportunities to increase by at least 5 per cent in the forecast period. The Group is driving this growth through investments. In doing so, it aims to shift further market share from over-the-counter trading and clearing to the on-exchange segment and to further expand its positions in existing asset classes by introducing new products and functionalities and acquiring new customers. In contrast, the development of business divisions relying on cyclical factors continues to depend mainly on the degree of speculation regarding the future interest rate development and the level of volatility on equities markets. Given the exceptionally high market volatility and US interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2020, it is very likely that the Group’s cyclical net revenue will go down over the forecast period. Acquisitions, particularly the acquisition of Fondcenter AG from UBS on 30 September 2020 and the acquisition of ISS as at 25 February 2021, are expected to deliver additional net revenue. In total the company anticipates net revenue of around €3.5 billion for the forecast period.

Within the scope of its growth strategy, Deutsche Börse Group pursues clearly defined principles for managing operating costs. Essentially, the Group achieves the necessary flexibility in managing operating costs by a continuous process of improving operating routines. The company expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to go up to around €2.0 billion in the forecast period. The Group would then be fully in line with its medium-term growth targets of 10 per cent per year on average for net revenue and EBITDA over the period from 2019 to 2023.

Forecast for results of operations 2021

Based on 2020
€m
Forecast for 2021
€bn

Net revenue

3,213.9~3.5
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA)1,877.7~2.0